Beyond temperature: predictive modelling of range shifts in benthic peracarids across the northern North Pacific under future climate scenarios

Kaiser, S.; Jazdzewska, A.M.; Gerken, S.; Tandberg, A.H.S.; Wei, C.L.; Di Franco, D.; Saeedi, H.; Owens, H.; Knauber, H.; Palacios-Theil, E.; Brandt, A.; Martinez Arbizu, P.; Oldeland, J.

doi:/10.1016/j.pocean.2025.103657

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Beyond temperature: predictive modelling of range shifts in benthic peracarids across the northern North Pacific under future climate scenarios

Kaiser, S.; Jazdzewska, A.M.; Gerken, S.; Tandberg, A.H.S.; Wei, C.L.; Di Franco, D.; Saeedi, H.; Owens, H.; Knauber, H.; Palacios-Theil, E.; Brandt, A.; Martinez Arbizu, P.; Oldeland, J. (2026). Beyond temperature: predictive modelling of range shifts in benthic peracarids across the northern North Pacific under future climate scenarios. Prog. Oceanogr. 242: 103657. https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2025.103657

In: Progress in Oceanography. Pergamon: Oxford,New York,. ISSN 0079-6611; e-ISSN 1873-4472

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VLIZ: Non-open access 419425 [ request ]

Keywords

Classification > Taxonomy
Crustacea [WoRMS]

Author keywords

Marine; Ecological traits; Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt); Open-access databases; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

Authors		Top
Kaiser, S. Jazdzewska, A.M. Gerken, S. Tandberg, A.H.S. Wei, C.L.	Di Franco, D. Saeedi, H. Owens, H. Knauber, H.	Palacios-Theil, E. Brandt, A., more Martinez Arbizu, P., more Oldeland, J.

Abstract

Accelerating climate change driven by greenhouse gas emissions is profoundly impacting marine biodiversity. Some species are shifting their geographic ranges toward more favourable environments, while others lose suitable habitat and face extinction. We examined the effects of climate change on selected benthic peracarid species (Amphipoda, Cumacea, and Isopoda) in the Pacific Arctic, Pacific Subarctic, and North Pacific temperate ecosystems—regions characterized by environmental sensitivity and unique topography. Using Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) modelling, we identified key environmental drivers of species occurrence and projected horizontal and vertical shifts until 2050 and 2100 under RCP 2.6 and 8.5 scenarios. We further analysed how ecological traits such as diet, mobility, and life habit correlate with distributional responses. While most species shifted northward, some exhibited unexpected directional changes, likely due to regional differences in climate velocity, environmental change, and species-specific responses. Temperature emerged as a primary determinant for many species, with dissolved oxygen and salinity also playing critical roles. Our findings indicate that traits—particularly diet and bathymetric distribution—affect potential habitat expansions or contractions, categorizing species as potential “winners” or “losers.” Despite challenges including deep-sea data limitations and complex trait interactions, our study provides vital insights into future peracarid distributions. These results underscore the need for refined predictive models and targeted conservation strategies to enhance ecosystem resilience and sustainable resource management in a warming ocean.

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